Imaginary Classic: 2017 Warriors vs '96 Bulls
A 96 Bulls vs 2017 Warriors Super Finals matchup comes with a lot at stake. Here are 6 big things:
1. The loser forfeits their claim to greatest team of all-time.
2. A Super Finals loss for the Bulls chips away at MJ’s GOAT case.
3. Durant flips the “KD is soft for joining the Warriors” narrative and climbs the all-time rankings if he plays MJ to a draw and the Dubs win….
4. But if Scottie Pippen shuts down Durant, he's gotta be the greatest defensive forward ever.
5. A strong Steph and Klay showing makes it tough to argue against them as the GOAT backcourt.
6. And Warriors coach Steve Kerr’s rep takes a major hit the moment Bulls player Steve Kerr catches the Dubs defense in a coma and does this!
But before we can determine how likely the 5 things that aren’t Steve Kerr getting a 2 on zero directly-under-the-goal-in-game oop from Judd Buechler, (definitely happening) we have to figure out…..
The Hand Checking Dilemma
For anyone unfamiliar, hand-checking is when the defender is allowed to put their hands on the player they’re guarding and put some weight into it and try to steer the offensive player where they want them to go. Present day defenders can still lean in with a bent arm in the post, but in 1996 you could do it EVERYWHERE ON THE COURT.[1]
Typically the Bulls-Warriors convo goes like this. “Well if you allow hand-checking, Bulls win easy. But if you don’t allow hand-checking, the Warriors win easy.” Well, that’s fucking boring! So to make this a subject worth debating at all, we need to find a compromise. There’s no great way say the teams are allowed to “sorta hand-check.” You’re either allowed to do it or you’re not. So the compromise is this: there have to be some games in the best-of-seven where you allow it and some where you don’t.
The obvious move is to allow ’96 style hand-checking rules when the Bulls play at home, and ’17 hands-free ball in Oakland. But you can’t do it that way. Because then the debate turns simple again: “Whichever team has home court advantage wins.” So to avoid the simple and boring conversation, you have to do the exact opposite—no hand-checking in Chicago, but it’s an all-you-can-hand-check special at Oakland. Now, who are you betting on? The team that has home-court advantage? Or the team that has hand-check advantage?[2]
A Few Words About Pace
The ’96 Bulls’ pace was 91.1, meaning they averaged 91.1 offensive possessions per game during the regular season. But in the Finals they played even slower—83.5. The ’17 Warriors’ regular season pace was 99.8, and they played slightly faster in their Finals. Put another way—the ’17 Warriors had a whopping 16 more possessions per game in their Finals than the ’96 Bulls did in theirs—which is a lot! Having hand-checking for some of the games would make the Warriors want to push the tempo even more—after all, it’s a lot harder to get hand-checked when you’re playing in space.
The Lineups
Warriors Line up of Death/Hamptons 5
SF – Andre Iguodala (One of the best guys in his Venture Capitalist League)
PF – Kevin Durant (offseason hobbies – flag football, sliding into DMs)
C – Draymond Green (2017 Defensive Player of the Year)
SG – Klay Thompson (Game 6's are easy once you’ve taught your dog to play chess)
PG– Steph Curry (One of the best guys in his Game Show Producer League)
Significant Warrior Bench Guys Who’d Play
G/F – Shaun Livingston (5.2 ppg in the playoffs on 58% shooting. Cash $ turnaround J means BBQ mouse if any mouse in the house down low)
PF/C – David West (6’9” 250, kinda washed but still with rep as the wrong dude to mess with and would see time on Rodman, so guaranteed sparks there)
G – Ian Clark (Solid, 6.8 ppg)
Warriors Spare Parts
C – Javale McGee (Crazy but not in a malicious way)
F – Matt Barnes (Crazy in a malicious way—Mandatory 5 solid minutes of Barnes vs Rodman at some point in the series)
G/F – Patrick McCaw (AKA The Lebron Stopper. 8-1 against LeBron in Finals Games. Incredibly significant stat you should look up if you don't believe me)
Bulls Lineup of Armor/Cabrini In a Blizzard 5
SF – Scottie Pippen (1st Team All-NBA 3rd straight year in spite of staying up late working memoirs by gaslight)
PF - Toni Kukoc (1996 6th Man of the Year)
C – Dennis Rodman (1996 Binge Drinking Man of the Year. Will handle stress of playing out of position by staying out til noon)
PG – Ron Harper (untraditional PG but not an issue in the Triangle Offense; member of The Breakfast Club morning workout clique along along with MJ and Pip. Aw. RIP MJ and Pip’s frenemy-ship)
SG – Michael Jordan (MVP…of the Anita Baker Fan Club!)
Significant Bulls Playoff Bench Guys Who’d Play
Steve Kerr (shot the shit out of the ball in the regular reason (55% from 3) but not great in the playoffs in ’96 (32%)—or really ever in the post-season (with two important exceptions—The Shot in ’97 and The Quarter with the Spurs in ’03)
Jud Buechler – Has to play from a matchup standpoint—44% 3 point shooter regular season, 38% on threes in the playoffs. Has the size and athleticism to attempt to guard Klay and fellow ‘Zona guy Andre Iguodala. Would need to score more than his usual 3 points a game.
Bulls Spare Parts
Randy Brown (Defensive specialist and 9% 3 point shooter in ’96—that was not a typo)
C – Bill Wennington (a very polite person)
C – John Salley (no longer good—but not yet obviously insane)
C – James “Buddha” Edwards (40 and washed)
PF- Jason Caffey & Dickie Simpkins (In the interest of thoroughness…both played in the regular season but neither was on the playoff roster, so they can’t play here. Sorry. And if that troubles Da Bulls fans, I sense desperation....)
Gone But Not Forgotten – Zaza and Luc
Luc Longley was a significant part of the ’96 Bulls. He didn’t put up eye-popping stats (9 points, 5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks) but he anchored the defense and took on big assignments in the playoffs, guarding Ewing, Shaq, and even Shawn Kemp (Meanwhile, Rodzilla guarded Ervin “Hocus Pocus” Johnson). It should be noted that Luc got in foul trouble on the regular and only played 24 minutes a night.
2017 Zaza actually topped ’96 Luc in win shares. ZZ put up 6 points and 6 boards in the regular season playing 18 just minutes a night. (Of course his biggest contribution was taking out Kawhi Leonard when the Warriors were getting their asses kicked in Game 1 of the WCF against the Spurs.)
Sorry to ZZ Pach and Long Luc Long super fans, but neither of these guys are going to play a second in this series. I mean, why would Golden State screw around and not go immediately to the Death Lineup? And then how does Longley stay on the court? By guarding Draymond Green? Eesh, sounds dicey in and of itself, and then what about the switches? You telling me you envision 7’2” 265 Luc getting down in his stance and slapping the floor when he’s switched onto Steph? He’d have a better chance at tackling a pterodactyl. Which, not to stereotype or anything, I'd expect an Aussie of any size to at least try to do.
Taking ZZ and Luc off the board is definitely advantage Golden State since the Dubs’ roster is much better equipped to go small.
The Matchups - When the Warriors Have the Ball
Durant vs Pippen – Best matchup in the series and here’s why—we tell ’96 Pippen and ’17 Durant all about their 2021-to-Infinity beef.
Which means this should be a war. Durant would want to get right to his sweet spots and shoot over the top like it ain’t no thing. Scottie would try to get all 90s physical and keep Durant out of those spots—or at least slightly winded by the time he gets there. As good as Scottie was defensively, he did sometimes get cooked by guys like Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway. Durant ain’t on their level athletically but is more of a force as a pure scorer.
Durant’s Over-Under: 26 points per game.
Prop Bet: Does Durant show up to any games in his Kukoc jersey?
Draymond vs Rodman
With Durant’s arrival, Draymond focused his energy away from scoring (10.2 ppg) and more to everything else but shot better and scored more in the ’17 playoffs (13.1 ppg, 41% from three), The concern for Rodman in this match-up is the switches onto Steph that the Draymond-Curry pick-and-roll brings. This would not be a problem for say 1990 Pistons greyhound Rodman—more like he would have been the problem for Steph. But ’96 Rodman mostly liked to board and bang by the basket and—like a Dungeons and Dragons addict—-he didn’t really like to go outside. Motivating Rodman to consistently venture out from Reboundville to Threeburbia sounds like a job for the Zen Master.
Draymond’s Over-Unders: 10 ppg, 10 rpg, 6 apg
Steph vs Ron Harper
Some are convinced Jordan would draw this assignment, but that seems like a waste when you want Jordan to have 40 point energy and you have a perfectly good Ron Harper lying around. Well, maybe not perfectly good—he did miss time in the Finals with a bad knee. But assuming he’s fairly healthy for this one, he fits the profile of a guy who gives Steph some issues—6’6”, 215, physical and defensive minded. Having said that, ’17 Steph shoots it well from everywhere (including 62% from within 5 feet of the basket—elite for a guard). If Harper stays attached, he has a chance to hold Steph under 20 for a game or two in the series. But if the games loosen up and Steph has space, he could score and drive the Dubs to some blowouts.
Steph’s Over-Under: 22 points per game.
PS – Wouldn’t rule out Jordan guarding Steph some, but it’d only make sense on a cameo basis.
Klay vs Jordan
Not an easy assignment for MJ by any means, but Klay’s game is roughly similar to Reggie Miller’s so the work would be familiar. And while there’d be plenty of chasing Klay around, the mileage would be less than it’d be for chasing Steph. Klay’s scoring dipped to 15 ppg in the ‘17 playoffs so the Dubs would hope for the 22 ppg regular season version. And this is crucial—the Bulls as a team would have to find Klay in transition, or risk watching Klay throw a rapid succession of fireballs through the net.
Klay’s Over-Under 18 ppg
Andre Iguodala vs Toni Kukoc
The leftovers—a funky 6’6 vs 6’11 matchup. No one should love the idea of Kukoc guarding Iguodala but it shouldn’t be scorched earth—Iggy only averaged 7 a game that season. With Zaza off the board, Andre’s playing more here but I still wouldn’t expect monster numbers. At 6’11, Kukoc would try to use his length and not give up easy Iggy drives or corner 3s.
Iggy’s Over-Under: 10 ppg
When the Bulls Have the Ball
Pippen vs Durant
The ‘96 Bulls dirty secret is that Scottie wasn’t very good on offense in the ’96 playoffs. He averaged just 16.9 ppg on 39% shooting and 29% from three. He was battling ankle, knee, and those-always-lurking back issues—so it’s not like he didn’t have his reasons—but his bad playoff shooting still seems like something worth mentioning. Since half the world is convinced this is the greatest team of all-time, in any sport, on any planet in the galaxy! Look, all champs are at least a little banged up after a Finals run, so we’re giving the ’96 Bulls and the ’17 Warriors both a couple of months off to get rested and ready for their epic showdown. Hopefully that’s enough time for Scottie to start to feel better, because while Slim Reaper may not be Scottie-level on D, he’s still pretty good. But that’s what’s beautiful about bringing the 2021-to-infinity beef into it. These guys will be going at it! If Scottie responds like he did when he had beef with Larry Johnson, Scottie vs KD will be a classic.
Pippen’s Over-Under: 20 ppg
Rodman vs Draymond
Draymond vs Rodman could be a war, a cartoon, or something in between—but there will be blood. Rodman was the clown prince of basketball bad assess, so he wasn’t immune to flopping—a trick he learned from Grand Masters Mahorn and Laimbeer. Of course, flopping is something all vintages of Draymond do as well. This matchup could be a feats-of-strength pissing contest or a full blown flop fest. So we’re bringing in special guest referee Mills Lane to keep his eye on whatever the hell might happen. And while DPOY Draymond has good qualifications for someone who might be able to keep Worm of the boards, well, good luck. ’96 Rodman was psyched by his new spotlight, and it’s hard to see Draymond keeping Rodman off the glass in a meaningful way. Golden State would try to play faster, which could equal more boards for the Worm. But they’d also be more spread out and shoot more 3s—which could mean fewer. I’d expect Rodman to wind up right at 15 boards per game. Btw, the Bulls will need any points he can give them—he averaged a relatively high (for him) 7.5 ppg in the ‘96 playoffs. A bit more than that would be nice.
Rodman’s Over-Under 7 ppg, 15 rpg
Jordan vs Klay/Iguodala
Klay and Iggy would be one of the best tandems to guard Jordan in a best-of-seven (Pistons Dumars and Rodman is #1). Klay’d be up for the challenge but Iggy would likely finish games on MJ. Both guys would study tendencies and try to funnel Jordan toward help—now is a good as time as any for a friendly PSA that defense is a TEAM THING—but Iguodala’s a cerebral defender with the better hands and really just an overall better guarder than Klay. The challenge may come in picking his spots on when to swipe at the ball—one of the ways MJ murdered Utah was by getting to the line 10x a game.
Jordan’s Over-Under: 36 ppg
Harper vs Steph
Just because Harper was one of the weaker offensive links doesn’t mean he didn’t contribute. He averaged just 7.4 ppg in the regular season, but was averaging in double figures for the playoffs before his knee affected him during the Finals. Not the athlete he was in Cleveland—but still kinda athletic—but he didn’t shoot it all that well. He's an ideal defensive assignment for Steph, who should have plenty of gas left for the offensive end. Steph should also have some time guarding Player Kerr, which shouldn’t be too taxing either since Coach Kerr can reveal all of his secrets.
Harper’s Over-Under: 9 points
Kukoc vs Iguodala/Durant (with Klay on Pippen)
The 6th Man of the Year had a nice regular season (13 ppg in just 26 minutes, with 40% on threes). But like ’96 Pippen, he played more and produced less in the playoffs. Toni would need to score well in this matchup, but was more of a weapon against bigs he could take off the dribble than vs. strong but shorter defenders like Iguodala. When Iggy slides onto MJ, the logical move would be to put Durant on Kukoc with Klay on Pip. You’d expect Kukoc to be able to score some against Durant—but it’s not matchup he’s killing either. Same for Pip on Klay.
Kukoc’s Over-Under: 14 ppg
Misleading Fun Fact– The Bulls Shot a Better % From Three Than the Warriors
It’s true! The ’96 Bulls shot .403 on three pointers while the ’17 Warriors shot .383. So 3 point shooting must be advantage Bulls, right? Oh, and by the way, ’96 Jordan—not known as a great 3 point shooter—actually shot a higher 3 percentage than Steph and Klay did in ‘17. There, take that knowledge and go win a bar bet. But then come back on focus on what’s really going on here.
1. The ’95-’96 season was one of three where the NBA moved the 3 point line to 22 feet—not just in the corners, but on the arc portion as well. Normally, the arc is 23’9, so they moved it in almost 2 feet.
2. Because the ‘17 Warriors shot roughly twice as many three pointers per game, they scored 16 more points per game on threes than the ’96 Bulls did, despite their slightly lower percentage.
3. Even with the shorter line, the ’96 Bulls regular season three point awesomeness seems like a fluke. They dropped from .403 in the regular season all the way down to .306 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the ’17 Warriors actually improved from thee in the playoffs, from .383 to .386.
Put another way, there’s one reliable three point shooting team in this Finals and it ain’t the Bulls.
Since the 1996 and 2017 three point lines are different, we need to figure which one to use during the games. This time let’s just do the ’96 line for Bulls home games and the ’17 line for the Warriors at home. And who gets home court advantage? Vegas somehow has odds on this matchup—and made Golden State the favorite, so lets give home court to the Dubs. It’ll be a 2-2-1-1-1 format with the first two games in Oakland (so hand-checking allowed, longer 3 line), then 3 and 4 in Chicago (short three point line and hand-checking not allowed).
Bulls Path to Victory
Defensive domination. The Bulls mix things up with turnover forcing traps and Pippen demoralizes Steph by picking him up full court, igniting a deflection and dunk fest., but the rest of the time, they slow it down. Jordan/Harper take turns channeling their inner Tony Allen (6’4”, guarded KD well) and body Durant off his spots. Jordan/Harper stay disciplined and home on Klay. Rodman gets away with ignoring Draymond on the perimeter and gobbles up every board. Offensively, Jordan gets close to 40 a night and the rest of the team plays more like the offensive juggernaut they were in the regular season than the “winning ugly” team they were in the playoffs.
Warriors Path to Victory
Offensive explosiveness. The Dubs weather the hand-check storm in their home games and even learn to hand-check back. They don’t get frustrated and manage to score in waves. This style isn’t Steph’s favorite but he figures it out enough to grind out 23 and 7 for the series. Durant averages an efficient 27. Defensively, they make Jordan work for his without constantly double-teaming and they contain everyone else on the Bulls.
The Prediction
The Warriors path seems more likely. They have too many guys who can get loose and score in bunches, their bench is better, and the edge in points from Three-point land will be huge. Golden State wins in 6.
What about a Sequel? ‘92 Bulls vs ‘17 Warriors?
So the ’17 Dubs have taken out the ’96 Bulls. Would the ’92 Bulls be a better matchup? You lose Rodman and Kukoc, plus you lose Harper and his defense, but here the things you gain with the ’92 team.
1. A healthier, more athletic Pippen (7 free throw attempts per game in ’92 Playoffs vs 4 per game in ’96)
2. Horace Grant a PF who scored and guarded better on the perimeter than ’96 Rodman
3. A better collection of shooters in BJ Armstrong, John Paxson, and 3X 3-point champ Craig Hodges.
4. More matchup appropriate spare parts in Hodges, Cliff Levingston, Scott Williams, and Bobby Hansen—that's right, Bobby freaking Hansen.
5. A better Jordan? Definitely a case for ‘92 MJ over ‘96.
To Be Continued…..
[1] Hand-checking was allowed in the NBA all the way up to and thru the 2003-2004 season, but got really popular in the 90s.
[2] Hey super nerds. We’re not doing ’96 style illegal defense. Just defensive 3 seconds, across the board, both arenas. It might be an issue for issue for Rodman, but it’s simpler that way. Besides, there was an AP test on Illegal Defense and Golden State tested out.